MarketRisk Documentation

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Disclaimer

This software can be used to estimate the market risk involved in a specific investment decision. This software does not provide financial advice. You should use it only as a rough guideline as part of a broader investment strategy. We do not, in any way, guarantee that the returns or risks estimated by this software are accurate or will manifest. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making your investment decision.

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Algorithm Description

This software uses a proprietary risk estimation algorithm to recommend your MAXIMUM invested position size. The software is optimized to produce the highest return possible, with a constant limit of risk (see Your Risk Tolerance). It limits the maximum sale to 20% of your position by default, to avoid paying lots of capital gains taxes. While the recommendations this software makes are aimed to be tax-efficient and fee-efficient, there is no guarantee that executing trades will not result in significant fees or taxes.

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Your Risk Tolerance

How much money loss do you tolerate in any given year (USD)? For example, if being down $10,000 is OK with you, enter 10000.

We recommend that you grow your risk amount by 3-8% in real terms every year, depending on your savings situation. For instance, if you are saving at a real rate of 10% per year, you should aim for higher risk growth (8%). If you are saving at only 5% per year, a lower number would be better (3%).

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Stats

The report shows you 50-year portfolio stats for a demo portfolio started in 1929 with a starting risk limit of $1000 1929 dollars. The 50-year period is from 1970 to 2020. The risk limit grows by a default real rate of 4% per year. The rolling 50-year periods used for the variance calculation start from 1949-1970.

For reference:
Long-term inflation rate is 3.8%.
Money supply growth rate is 6.5%.

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Constructing Your Portfolio

1. Use our new Portfolio Planner to plan out your portfolio according to your goals.
You will need a few numbers, specifically inflation and rate of return (in percent) (do not include the % sign).
Rate of return (average annual) you can get from the portfolio stats at the bottom of the main MarketRisk window. Example: 16.3%
If you haven't selected any assets for your portfolio, please go to step 2, add assets, and then come back to Portfolio Planner.

Inflation rate is 3.8% long-term (last 50 years).
You may also be earning some interest on your savings, in which case enter the percent interest rate. Otherwise just set it to 0.
The type of goal can be Retirement Income, in which case the amount is the ANNUAL income you expect to have.
In Portfolio Planner, your risk tolerance is % of Goal Risked. Enter a percentage of total that you wish to risk, such as 20%.

Planning Your Risk Tolerance:
i. Start by taking the sum of the recommended "Final Amount Invested" from Portfolio Planner output plus the recommended "Final Amount Saved" from the output.
ii. Take the risk tolerance from Portfolio Planner (% of Goal Risked) and multiply this by the sum from (i). Example (for 20% of $500,000): 0.20 x 500000.
iii. Multiply the result from (ii) by 1.5.  Reason? Portfolio Planner has a rough estimate of risk, not an exact one. We need to adjust this to get a better overall estimate in the context of MarketRisk.
iv. Enter the resulting amount from (iii) as your risk tolerance in the main MarketRisk window.

2. Use the list of assets on the middle left to add each asset you desire (or search for a best combination using Find Best Combo).
Click on the + sign to add an asset. Click on the - sign to remove an asset.
Assets in your portfolio are shown in the topmost list on the left.
You can play around with asset combinations as you wish, but keep in mind that usually 3-5 assets are sufficient for diversification.
Note: Your estimated 50-year rate of return will change in the stats section. Make sure you update Portfolio Planner with the correct rate of return.
Currently the asset combination with the best 50-year rate of return is: SP500 + Gold + Palladium.

3. You will need to enter the current price of every asset except bonds.
4. If you already own an asset, enter the position size (how much you own) as well. Otherwise, set it to 0.
5. Enter Your Risk Tolerance in the text box at the top.
6. Once you've entered your prices / amounts, click on "Create Report".

Note: "Amount to Invest" in the report is a total maximum amount. If you want to invest less, feel free to do so. You are not required to risk the maximum.

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Portfolio Adjustment

For best results, and throughout the application, portfolio adjustment frequency is every year. We recommend you run the application early in the year, e.g. in January, and then take the rest of the year to adjust your portfolio. Trading frequently incurs penalties in the form of fees and taxes. This is why you should keep the frequency to yearly or less frequent. The 50-year portfolio stats shown are for yearly adjustment, at the year's average price.

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Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow)

Enter the US dollar price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average as reported on Yahoo Finance (finance.yahoo.com) or other major news sites.

The Dow consists of the largest industrial companies in the United States. It is a market cap weighted index.

Position size is how much you own in US dollars, at the current index price.

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S&P 500 (SP500)

Enter the US dollar price of the S&P 500 as reported on Yahoo Finance (finance.yahoo.com) or other major news sites.

The S&P 500 consists of the 500 largest companies in the United States. S&P stands for Standard & Poors. It is a market cap weighted index.

Position size is how much you own in US dollars, at the current index price.

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S&P/TSX Composite (TSX)

Enter the US dollar price of the TSX Composite as reported on major Canadian news sites.

The TSX Composite consists of the largest companies in Canada. TSX stands for Toronto Stock Exchange. It is a market cap weighted index.

Position size is how much you own in US dollars, at the current index price.

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Gold

Enter the spot price of gold in US dollars per troy ounce. Online Source: kitco.com

Position size is how much you own in US dollars, at the current spot price.

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Silver

Enter the spot price of silver in US dollars per troy ounce. Online Source: kitco.com

Position size is how much you own in US dollars, at the current spot price.

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Platinum

Enter the spot price of platinum in US dollars per troy ounce. Online Source: kitco.com

Position size is how much you own in US dollars, at the current spot price.

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Palladium

Enter the spot price of palladium in US dollars per troy ounce. Online Source: kitco.com

Position size is how much you own in US dollars, at the current spot price.

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US Treasury Bonds

This represents the 10-year US treasury bond.

Position size is how much you own in US dollars at the present time.

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Canadian Bonds

This represents the 10-year Canadian government bond.

Position size is how much you own in US dollars at the present time.

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